Osamagbe Imadiyi
A 50% increase in call rates was approved by the Nigerian Communications Commission on Monday, potentially increasing the average call cost to N16.5 per minute. Nigerians may pay the companies this sum because, according to national telephone traffic data from 2023, if call volumes stay constant, the increase could bring in over N6.74 trillion for telecom operators in 2025. This estimate, however, does not account for the influence of free and reduced call promotions, which could change actual revenue numbers.
Data from the NCC’s most recent 2023 Subscriber/Network Performance Report revealed that in 2023, there were 205.3 billion minutes of total outgoing telephone traffic and 203.2 billion minutes of total incoming traffic. “As of December 2023, total outgoing local and national traffic was 205,298,114,995.11 minutes, while total incoming local and national traffic was 203,187,588,876.00 minutes,” the report stated. MTN had the most traffic in 2023, with 122,667,600,437.00 minutes going out and 123,762,501,615.00 minutes going in”.
This suggests that in 2023, Nigerians made approximately 408.5 billion minutes of local calls. Our analysis was based on the data available for 2023, which may differ for 2025, as there was no new data available for 2024 at this time.
Despite the fact that the NCC reports that Nigerians spent 1.5 billion minutes on international calls in 2023, our analysis did not include international calls. With 122.7 billion minutes of outgoing traffic and 123.8 billion minutes of incoming traffic, MTN led the market, according to additional analysis.
MTN is the main beneficiary of the tariff adjustment and will generate more than 60% of the market’s total revenue at the new rate of N16.5 per minute, with combined outgoing and incoming call revenue expected to surpass N4 trillion.
Given its substantial share of both incoming and outgoing traffic, Airtel is anticipated to come in second with a projected revenue of about N1.78 trillion. An estimated N536.2 billion is generated by Glo, the third-largest operator. The traffic volumes of 9mobile (EMTS) are expected to generate approximately N105.6 billion. The anticipated N6.74 trillion in revenue demonstrates the substantial effect of the tariff hike.
It is anticipated that incoming calls will contribute an estimated N3.23 trillion, while outgoing calls alone will generate N3.28 trillion. Voice calls continue to be a major source of income for telecom operators, even in the face of the rising popularity of data services and over-the-top messaging platforms.
Additionally, it was noted that the NCC-approved 50% tariff increase is expected to raise the average SMS cost to N6, greatly increasing revenue for Nigerian telecom operators.