By Comrade Gbenga Olowoyo
The situation in the country with various revelations from National Bureau of statistics through its well researched and statistical presentation is commendable.
The information on both internal and external Nigeria debt profile was put at N46.25 Trillion as at September,2022 while projection was made that this debt profile will increase to N77 Trillion by June 2023 these were provided by the Debt Management office (DMO) and authenticated by National Bureau of statistics.
The Debt burden is not limited to the Federal Government but States are sharing part of the debts where Lagos State is the highest Debt-ridden state on the Debt chart released by the Debt Management Office (DMO)
As a result of the dynamic nature of human setting the Debt Management office (DMO) was established on the 4th October, 2000 to centrally coordinate the management of Nigeria debt which was abinitio being performed by multifarious offices in an uncoordinated approach by the Federal Ministry of Finance.
This spread of debt management strategy led to under performance by the various government agencies saddled with various responsibilities in this regard.
First and foremost, in the Federal Ministry of Finance ( FMF) alone, four different departments had functions for the management of external debt in the following format according to my research findings:
External Finance Department:
responsible for all Paris Club debts and for the management of public debt statistics;
Multilateral Institutions Department: responsible for relationships with all multilateral institutions (excluding the African Development Bank and its subsidiaries such as ADF and the NTF, which is handled by the ABER Department). It is also responsible for managing and servicing multilateral debt.
Africa and Bilateral Economic Relations (ABER) Department : responsible for liaising with the ADB and its subsidiaries, ECOWAS, and all non-Paris Club bilateral creditors;
Treasury Department (OAGF):
responsible for issuing mandate to the CBN for payment of all external debts;
Foreign Exchange.
Trade Relations Department:
responsible for issuing reconfirmation for payment externalization to the CBN and for documenting repayment and servicing of external debts;
In the CBN, the following departments had some involvement with external debt
management:
Debt Management Department: responsible for the London Club debts consisting of trade debts, par bonds, and promissory notes;
Debt Conversion Committee: responsible for managing various debt conversion options such as debt-for-debt, debt-for-equity, debt-for-export, debt-fornature, and debt-for-development; and
Various departments: responsible for processing and effecting loan repayments on behalf of all the other agencies or departments of government listed above.
This duplication in the management of public debt created fundamental problems, including the following:
Operational inefficiency and poor coordination;
Inadequate debt data recording system and poor information flow across agencies with consequent inaccurate and incomplete debt records;
Extreme difficulty in the verification of creditors’ claims due to conflicting figures from the various bodies handling the debt management function;
Complicated and inefficient debt service arrangements, which created protracted payment procedure and often led to penalties that added to the nation’s debt stock;
Inadequate manpower and poor incentive systems for the affected personnel, which affected outputs and performance;
Lack of consistent well-defined borrowing policies and debt management strategies;
The consideration of these myriad problems led government to support the establishment of a relatively autonomous debt management office, which resulted in the formation of the DMO in October 2000.
The need for the creation of a separate public debt management office was therefore aimed at achieving the following advantages:
Good debt management practices that make positive impact on economic growth and national development, particularly in reducing debt stock and cost of public debt servicing in a manner that saves resources for investment in poverty reduction programs;
Prudently raising financing to fund government deficits at affordable costs and manageable risks in the medium- and long-term;
Achieving positive impact on overall macroeconomic management, including monetary and fiscal policies;
Consciously avoiding debt crisis and achieving an orderly growth and development of the national economy;
Improving the nation’s borrowing capacity and its ability to manage debt efficiently in promoting economic growth and national development;
Projecting and promoting a good image of Nigeria as a disciplined and organized nation, capable of managing its assets and liabilities;
Providing opportunity for professionalism and good practice in nation building;
Nigeria public Debt profile between 1979-1983: brief history
The Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed was at a World Bank meeting recently and she told journalists that Nigeria is struggling to service debt and fund recurrent expenditure. She said this while trying to justify why Nigeria government was to take another trillion-naira loan that would take Nigeria’s debt, currently over ₦25 trillion, to something close to ₦27 trillion as at that time.
A brief look at our national debt history would show that when Nigeria first transitioned from military to civilian rule in 1979, General Olusegun Obasanjo left the country’s public foreign debt at $3.744 billion. By 1983, the Shagari administration had driven the debt to roughly $20 billion.
In the words of late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, a key opposition leader at the time,40 years ago, he expressed his thoughts thus; “We can all see at a glance, therefore, the depth to which Nigeria has sunk in the slough of foreign indebtedness as a result of the thoughtlessness of the Shagari and his team in their four years of office. His scramble for foreign loans from any source whatsoever and at any interest-rate up to Libor’s 20 percent per annum has no parallel anywhere except perhaps in a bankrupt country with a lazy and incompetent President like ours.”
Usually, countries keep track of their mistakes and try to avoid them. Nigeria however, appears to prefer to relive its worst mistakes and tragedies.
Obasanjo became president again in 1999 and worked out a partial write-off of Nigeria’s international debt to the tune of $19 billion, leaving Nigeria with a somewhat clean slate as at when he finished his leadership stint in 2007. We slowly grew this debt profile, and then 2015 happened. Buhari became President and Nigeria has borrowed more in the last seven years plus, than it did in the 30 years before his term and took debt levels from ₦12 trillion to ₦25 trillion without visible impact.
Let’s get one thing clear, debt in itself is not a bad thing. Debt is a neutral concept which can become a negative when done with the wrong thinking and spirit. A key factor in debt is the debtor having a proper sense of responsibility towards the lender, and the group that the loan is being taken on behalf of. This sense offf responsibility requires the investment of the loaned sum in ventures that guarantee returns on the investment.
Nigeria, however, appears to be in a dangerous situation where its RV debt-accumulation is led by people who have no real sense of responsibility towards the lender and the country they represent.
These loans have not been used to improve infrastructure and education that would improve our capacity to earn and repay creditors. Instead, these loans have been largely wasted on unproductive recurrent expenditure while the government has stayed true to actions, inactions, policies and legislation that stifle regional growth and market improvements. The decision to completely shut the land borders of the country ostensibly to combat smuggling is just one example of the baffling policies of the government. While smuggling definitely occurs across every country’s land borders and even through seaports, to deprive the overwhelming majority of legitimate business owners of access to regional markets in order to fight a few smugglers is akin to chasing rats while your house burns down.
We economically blind as a country how can our leaders be taking trillions of naira in loans but also spending trillions each year to subsidise both petrol and an unrealistic foreign exchange rate that barricade the economy.
The economic policies of the government have also managed to create an environment in which local businesses struggle while simultaneously deterring foreign investment from entering the country.
The consistent fall in FDI inflows combined with capital flight also leads to the government having to borrow more and more money to fund its expenditure.
Ironically, at the same time as the government voices concerns about the cost of governance, these costs are not being restrained in any way. Nigeria, despite being a country with rampant 33 million Nigerians living in extreme poverty, somehow also runs one of the most expensive bi-cameral parliaments in the world.
Poverty and insecurity are increasing we have all aknowledged that over 33 million Nigerians are living below poverty multidimensionally, partly, because of government policies while the government itself is increasingly hostile and parasitic to the productive sectors of the country that it should support to get adequate economic growth and development.
Infrastructure is in a dire state and several interstate highways are now either unmotorable or hopelessly compromised by kidnappers and other bandits.
Historically, we all remember President Shagari’s minister, Umaru Dikko, who said that Nigerians hadn’t started eating from dustbins so they were not really hungry but the situation is now very disastrous.
Profiling Debt history of various Administrations in Nigeria
Nigeria’s public debt has been on the rise. Despite securing debt relief during the Olusegun Obasanjo-led administration, successive governments have continued on a borrowing spree
This has raised concerns among Nigerians on the debt sustainability of the country amid dwindling revenue to meet the debt obligations to creditors.
Available information indicated that in the last quarter of 2022 the National Assembly approved three different loan requests by President Muhammadu Buhari to further plunge the country into monumental Debt.
We should recall that on July 7, 2021, the upper chamber approved a loan request of N2.343 trillion, approximately $6 billion and another $8.3 billion and €490 million.
Equally as of March 2021, Nigeria’s total public debt has hit N33.1 trillion ($87.24 billion) — an accumulation of borrowings from successive governments, of which most were borrowed since the return to democratic rule in 1999.
It is expedient to state that the overall public debt is the total debt accrued by federal, states, and the FCT from local and international lenders.
Of the N33.1 trillion, the federal government alone borrowed N26.91 trillion — this includes the FGN bonds, Sukuk, green bonds and Euro bonds.
Finally, after weeks of data aggregation, number crunching, dissecting and analyses of freedom of information (FOI) response from the Debt Management Office (DMO), highlighted how Nigeria’s aggressive borrowing defies its fiscal responsibility laws.
The analyses also include data from the DMO, National Bureau of Statistical (NBS), and fiscal papers from the Budget Office of the Federation.
Data from the DMO seen showed that federal government borrowings (local and foreign debt) climbed from N3.55 trillion in 1999 to N26.91 trillion at the end of March 2021.
This represents a 658 percent increase in 21 years, comprising the administrations of Olusegun Obasanjo, Umar Musa Yar’Adua, Goodluck Jonathan, and the current Muhammadu Buhari.
HOW MUCH BUHARI BORROWED IN 7 YEARS
The Budget Office’s medium-term expenditure framework and fiscal strategy paper from 2015 showed that the Buhari-led administration incurred N7.63 trillion in domestic debt from June 2015 to December 2020.
On external borrowings, President Buhari increased debt from $7.3 billion in 2015 to $28.57 billion as of December 2020. This means that the president incurred $21.27 billion on foreign loans to the country’s debt portfolio.
The country’s exchange rate moved from N197 to a dollar in 2015 to N780 at the end of December 2022.
Analysis of consolidated debt showed that the external debt increased by 291.37 percent while domestic debt grew by 86.31 percent in the last over seven years of the Buhari government.
Overall, the Buhari-led government has had an accumulated debt of N46.06 trillion as of last quarter of 2022, using the N780 exchange rate. This represents a 280.2 percent increase from when he was elected president in 2015.
DEBT PROFILE UNDER JONATHAN’S ADMINISTRATION
At the beginning of former President Goodluck Jonathan’s tenure in 2011, the federal government had an accumulated debt of N6.17 trillion.
Analysis of the debt figure showed that local debt amounted to N5.62 trillion while foreign debt stood at $3.5 billion (about N548.65 billion, using the exchange rate of N156.7/$1).
By the end of 2015, the foreign debt component hit $7.3 billion, while domestic debt increased by N8.4 trillion. The country’s exchange rate also stood at N197/$1.
Overall, the federal government component of the total public debt increased from N6.17 trillion in 2011 to N9.8 trillion in 2015, representing an increase of N3.63 trillion or 58.8 percent.
YAR’ADUA/JONATHAN’S BORROWINGS
Under the Umar Musa Yar’Adua/Goodluck Jonathan-led government between 2007 and 2011, domestic debt of the federal government moved from N2.17 trillion to N5.62 trillion. The foreign component of the debt also increased from $2.11 billion to $3.5 billion within the period.
The country’s exchange rate also moved from N116.8/$1 to N156.7/$1.
The combined debt profile increased from N2.42 trillion to N6.17 trillion in four years, representing a 155 percent jump.
Of the debt figure, Jonathan completed the tenure from May 2010 to May 2011 after the death of Yar’Adua. The period saw a surge in the federal government’s debt from N4.94 trillion to N6.17 trillion. This represents a 24.9 percent increase in one year.
OLUSEGUN OBASANJO’S TENURE
During the tenure of former president Olusegun Obasanjo, the debt level of the federal government reduced from N3.55 trillion in 1999 to N2.42 trillion at the end of 2007.
The 8-year term of Obasanjo resulted in a dip in FG’s local and foreign debt level, representing a 31.8 percent decline.
The country’s exchange rate was between N98.02 to N116.8 to a dollar during the tenure.
Analysis of the figures showed that external debt decreased from $28.04 billion by 1999 to $2.11 billion at the end of 2007. However, the domestic component increased from N798 billion to N2.17 trillion within the same period.
The huge decline in foreign debt was a result of the substantial reduction following the pay-off of the outstanding debts owed to the London Clubs of Creditors in the first quarter of 2007.
BUHARI, NIGERIA’S BIGGEST BORROWER, VIOLATING FINANCIAL LAWS
So far, Buhari is the country’s biggest borrower, increasing public debt (FG component) by more than 173 percent. Next to the Buhari government is the Yar’Adua/Jonathan administration with a 155 percent surge in borrowing.
The current government violates important financial laws in the country — the Fiscal Responsibility Act, and the CBN Act 2007.
The fiscal responsibility law provides a limit of three percent debt threshold for sustainability, but the president can “exceed the ceiling if there is a clear and present threat to national security or sovereignty of Nigeria”.
In 2020, the country’s budget deficit was at about four percent of GDP, clearly breaking the law.
On overdraft, section 38, sub-section 1 and 2, of the CBN Act, said, “the Bank may grant temporary advances to the Federal Government in respect of temporary deficiency of budget revenue” and “the total amount of such advances outstanding shall not at any time exceed 5 percent of the previous year’s actual revenue of the Federal Government”.
By the end of 2020, CBN overdrafts to the Buhari government exceeded the limit by 69 percent of the revenue generated in 2019 – in a blatant violation of the apex bank rules. The government’s revenue in the year was N4.1 trillion, and overdraft stood at N2.9 trillion.
Also, Nigeria’s borrowing limit as a percent of GDP stood at 34.8 percent in 2020, well above 25 percent for the year.
Earlier this year, the federal executive council (FEC) had strategically raised the borrowing limit to 40 percent in its Medium-term debt management strategy for Nigeria for the period 2020-2023.
While Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP is lower than those of its peers, its debt-to-revenue is too low to sustain the country. Of every N100 government makes in revenue, N97 now goes to debt servicing.
In the last four administrations, only Obasanjo’s team reduced public debt; his government recorded a 32 percent decline with the London Club agreement.
Warning on the Nigeria rising Debt profile by Debt Management Office
Available information from the Director-General of Debt Management Office Mrs
Patience Oniha, disclosed that Nigeria’s debt is to hit N77 trillion by June 2023,
Although, an official noted that securitization of CBN loans will enhance debt transparency
It is a statement of fact that the next administration will inherit a public debt of N77 trillion if the N23 trillion loans from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) are securitised.
In her statement Thursday, Mrs Oniha noted that Nigeria’s total debt stock rose to N44.06 trillion as of the end of September 2022, largely reflecting the weakness of the local unit, Naira.
She added, however, that should the CBN loans be added to the debt profile, the nation’s debt portfolio would increase significantly.
“Considering reports that the next administration may inherit a total public debt stock of about N77 trillion, the estimated figure can be expected only if the Ways and Means Advances from the Central Bank of Nigeria are securitized,” she said.
“Nevertheless, it should be noted that the securitization will enhance debt transparency as the DMO will then be able to include the debt in the total public debt stock.
“If securitization is achieved, a brief breakdown of the estimated total public debt stock by May 2023 may comprise of the current total public debt stock of N44.06 trillion; the Ways and Means Advances of N22.72 trillion currently under the consideration by lawmakers.”
The DMO boss added that the projected debt stock for May 2023 remains at about N5.567 trillion.
This represents about 50 per cent of the new borrowing of N11.134 trillion in the 2023 Appropriation Act; the N1 trillion Ways and Means Advances to finance the supplementary budget already approved by the lawmakers; the new Promissory Notes estimated at N1.5 trillion to be issued to settle arrears of the FGN and judgment debts; and the estimated new borrowings by sub nationals for the same period
According to the NECA’s Director-General, Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, parts of the fundamentals needed to halt the slide “are stable and highly predictable revenue streams, growth-focused monetary and fiscal policies, a secure and business-friendly environment and a legal, regulatory and legislative system that promotes equity, justice and enables enterprise competitiveness.
In his words, these fundamentals are currently either lacking or highly compromised.
The obvious misalignments between the fiscal and monetary policies, which are deflating investors’ confidence and making the country unattractive for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), in spite of our large market, have all made growth projections academic.
“Deliberate efforts must be made to reverse some of the current policies and implement new ones. All leakages associated with Government revenue must be blocked (oil theft, skewed concessions, fuel subsidy, etc), and a wholesome review of the Tax administration to make it more equitable and investor-friendly should be initiated. While Governments in other climes are either reducing tax rates in order to enhance economic activities promote sustainable consumption and attract investors, Nigeria cannot continue to over-tax its businesses and citizens.
With over 50 different taxes, levies, and fees and Company Income Tax hovering around 35%, raising taxes to increase revenue will be counterproductive.
As the nation nears the mark of N77 trillion in debts with negligible impact on infrastructural development, the incoming Government must develop strategies to diversify the revenue base through the revival of the country’s lagging non-oil sectors. The fable about Debt to GDP ratio can no longer hold as the Government in the 2023 budget has also surpassed the 3 percent Debt to GDP ratio stipulated in the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
”While there have been projections for a global recession in 2023, the time for a major paradigm shift in our economic philosophy is now.
It is disheartening and serious disservice to humanity to note that over the last decade, the country has spent over N10 trillion on fuel subsidies, about 15.5 trillion on Capital Expenditure, 2.5 trillion on Health, and about 3.9 trillion on Education. This is a misplacement of priority and shows that critical developmental items such as education, health, and infrastructure have suffered due to the crass misplacement of our economic priorities. The nation seems to be behind in all economic growth fundamentals.
According to DMO, the increase in the public debt stock was largely due to new borrowings by the federal government to finance the deficit in the 2022 Appropriation Act, as well as new borrowings by state governments.
Considering analysis from experts and stakeholders, It is inexplicable, with all the aforesaid scientific inclined information provided by Debt Management Office, what then is the place of N10.04 trillion Naira revenue generated by the Federal inland revenue services (FIRS) in 2022
The official of FIRS Mrs Stella Obiora who spoke on behalf of the Executive Chairman FIRS, Muhammed Nami during 34th Enugu Trade Fair declared that FIRS generated over N10.04 trillion in the year 2022. Where is the money?
For reasons best known to succecive government in Nigeria, the much needed infrastructures such as; petroleum refineries which remains a mirage while existing refineries are now in the state of comatose despite huge borrowing by Nigeria Federal government.
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo, under whose leadership Nigeria cleared its external debts, earlier in the year criticised the incumbent regime for accumulating debt for future generations, describing it as a “foolish” and “criminal” act.
But President Buhari’s media adviser, Femi Adesina, justified the huge borrowings, saying the regime is borrowing for infrastructural development unlike past governments who looted loans.
It is gruesome that the Buhari-led Federal government had between January and March 2022 incurred N2trillion in Public Debt, bringing total debts to a record N41trillion and now N46.25 trillion as at December 2022
The country in the first quarter of 2022 alone spent an average of N9.94billion on debt servicing.
“A World Bank report showed that in terms of debt to GDP ratio, Nigeria is low but for debt service to revenue ratio, we are very high. So, if you look at tax to GDP ratio of these other countries, they are in multiples of Nigeria.
“The World Bank survey report of about 197 countries revealed that Nigeria is number 195, meaning we beat only two countries and that was Yemen and Afghanistan and I don’t think we want to be like those places,” DMO’s head, Patience Oliha, had warned .
I am of the very strong convinction that Nigeria economy will be better by the time we have new government in place with effect from 29th May 2023 who will have honest and dutiful financial management team with professional acumen devoid of fire brigade, trial and error economic Policy formulator
Comrade Gbenga Olowoyo, fcia fipma JP
Trade Unionist and industrial relations practitioner gbengaolowoyo3@gmail.com
08033570338